“We met once a week for, I think, about eight weeks online… we practice coming up with probabilities for extreme… back of the envelope math… very specific percentages for very abstract outcomes is quite common”

Marketplace Tech · Inside the mindset of AI safety workers

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What was described

took an 8-week online effective-altruism class that practiced back-of-envelope probability calculations for extreme outcomes

8 weeks; 10% probability cited for human extinction

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