“For the last 10 years, it's only missed quarterly earnings three times. That's predictable, right?”
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Said on Equity Mates Investing Podcast
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis
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used an AI tool in real time to pull historic S&P 500 earnings beat rates for the last 10 years
40-quarter average beat rate 77%; Q2 2026 beat rate 86.3%; worst quarter 2020 beat rate 65%
“For the last 10 years, it's only missed quarterly earnings three times. That's predictable, right?”
“From 1926 through 2025, a diversified portfolio… S&P 500 generated a return of about 10.5% a year. Small cap… 12.66% a year”
“I don't have a very bright… way of seeing how SaaS tools can compete long term with AI… these are the last few years where these SaaS tools will be useful”
“When you've got the S&P trading at about 19 times forward earnings, below its five-year average… earnings growth at 38%…”
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