Carolin Pflueger and co-authors · Odd Lots · Why Treasuries Are 'Risky' Again
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Decomposed Treasury bond risk into nominal and inflation-indexed components, showing that the inflation component drives recent increases in bond-stock correlation
“I measure that in the data through the co-movement between bonds and stocks… pre-2000 Treasury bonds were actually quite stock-like… post-2000 they were safe… now risk has gone up again.”
“There may be an LLM… there'll be a policy network… there'll be some symbolic components, meaning human written and human understandable components for processing and evaluating plans”
“Stay invested is the first component… we have lots of data over long periods… shows that stay invested is much better than not being or trying to get in and out of the market.”
“‘…eliminating 75 percent of the unnecessary components that should not be in your base image.’”
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