“I’ve already owned a lot of two-year notes because I don’t think the Fed’s going to be raising rates four times”
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Said on Macro Voices
The Real Eisman Playbook · 5% Rates, Bessent's Failed Gamble & What Comes Next w/ Krishna Guha | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 78
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Provided narrow forward guidance stating the Fed will raise rates exactly three times
“I’ve already owned a lot of two-year notes because I don’t think the Fed’s going to be raising rates four times”
“It has $365 billion of cash that's mainly invested in short-term treasuries… the Fed essentially gave Berkshire a billion-dollar raise by raising rates.”
“We ran a regression of the forecasted Fed funds rate onto forecasted inflation and forecasted output relative to potential… on this different data, forward-looking data.”
“Cord ... is an $8 billion valuation ... at three, four times what we think will be cash flow going forward”
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