“The narrow form, strong form forward guidance where I tell you I'm going to raise rates three times, not more, not less.”

The Real Eisman Playbook · 5% Rates, Bessent's Failed Gamble & What Comes Next w/ Krishna Guha | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 78

Play from 21:04
21:04

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What was described

Provided narrow forward guidance stating the Fed will raise rates exactly three times

Said nearby on the same subject

“I’ve already owned a lot of two-year notes because I don’t think the Fed’s going to be raising rates four times”
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Said on Macro Voices
How they work Share this moment
“It has $365 billion of cash that's mainly invested in short-term treasuries… the Fed essentially gave Berkshire a billion-dollar raise by raising rates.”
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Said on Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
Why it worked $365 billion cash; $1 billion gain from rate rise Share this moment
“We ran a regression of the forecasted Fed funds rate onto forecasted inflation and forecasted output relative to potential… on this different data, forward-looking data.”
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Carolin Pflueger and co-authors
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“Cord ... is an $8 billion valuation ... at three, four times what we think will be cash flow going forward”
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Said on Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Business model $8 billion valuation; 3-4× cash-flow multiple Share this moment

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