“We're short Caterpillar… the stock's at 40 times… it's hard to see how that's six or eight years… probably more like three or four years”

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC

Play from 53:27
53:27

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What was described

Shorted Caterpillar because it trades at ~40× earnings with limited cyclical growth horizon

40× earnings multiple

Said nearby on the same subject

“I sent an email ... I am increasing my equity rating by 20 percentage points. Why? Because my investment horizon is 40 years.”
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How they work 20 percentage points Share this moment
“When you've got the S&P trading at about 19 times forward earnings, below its five-year average… earnings growth at 38%…”
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Contrarian take 19x forward earnings; 5-year average higher; S&P up >14% YTD; 10-yr yi… Share this moment
“You could play this at the country level ... that simple strategy has been found to earn returns over a long time horizon.”
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Alex Edmans
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Why it worked Share this moment
“I would just use a high yield savings because I'm trying to get rid of the X... Over that short of a time horizon, it's not worth it to watch the number go up and down with the market.”
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