“Surveyed nearly 2,000 voters that found that if a candidate was favored by prediction markets, voters were between 10 and 20 percent points more likely to believe that that candidate would win”

On the Media · Place Your Bets!

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What was described

surveyed voters about the effect of prediction-market endorsements on belief in a candidate’s chances

2,000 voters; 10-20 percentage-point increase

Said nearby on the same subject

“Hanson wrote up the academic case for prediction markets generally, invented policy prediction markets, pointed out prediction markets' potential uses in science and governance and corporate governance and pushed for early prediction markets to get started.”
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Said on LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
Why it worked Share this moment
“Zach Lane, the Republican nominee, a Trump endorsed candidate in the Republican primary by campaigning in favor of a data center moratorium and at odds with the Trump administration's position, green lighting AI and data centers. And he managed to win on a platform of putting Iowa lands back in Iowa hands.”
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Said on On with Kara Swisher
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“The president issued an executive order in March 2025 that expanded the role of the Department of Homeland Security effectively in screening voter eligibility, giving the federal government a role that it hadn't really taken on in quite such an assertive posture before”
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Said on WSJ What’s News
Why it worked Share this moment
“We surveyed about just under 1,000 listeners of the Retire Right show. We asked them what they're most worried about, what they're excited about, the challenges, the opportunities”
GS
Glenn James and Vince Scully
Retire Right ·
Data play ≈1000 Share this moment

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