“If I was going to write a one to five million dollar seed bet…”
“Each seed investment is an option bet... you want to have enough of those... then when there is quantitative evidence of an outlier, position size up.”
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch · 20VC: Is Seed Investing Dead Without a $1BN Fund? | Does Ownership and Price Matter When Companies Can Be $1TRN Exits | Are AI Revenue Numbers Real and What to Watch Out For with Venky Ganesan, Menlo Ventures
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What was described
Treat each seed investment as an option bet and maintain a large portfolio of such bets to increase the chance of hitting an outlier
Said nearby on the same subject
“Large funds... somewhat being indifferent to seed valuations because they're using that as an option check.”
“He sold his position at a loss, freeing up roughly $500,000 to bet against Moderna by buying put options ahead of the trial results. Perfect timing for Togi. Shortly after, the results were leaked and the stock crashed by 26%.”
“…alternating big seed small seed… run the thresher for five or ten minutes between changing seed types to clean out a lot of the extra bits… very little chance of contamination…”
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