“Each seed investment is an option bet... you want to have enough of those... then when there is quantitative evidence of an outlier, position size up.”

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch · 20VC: Is Seed Investing Dead Without a $1BN Fund? | Does Ownership and Price Matter When Companies Can Be $1TRN Exits | Are AI Revenue Numbers Real and What to Watch Out For with Venky Ganesan, Menlo Ventures

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What was described

Treat each seed investment as an option bet and maintain a large portfolio of such bets to increase the chance of hitting an outlier

Said nearby on the same subject

“If I was going to write a one to five million dollar seed bet…”
♫
Said on How I Invest with David Weisburd
Why it worked 1-5 million dollar seed bet (example range) Share this moment
“Large funds... somewhat being indifferent to seed valuations because they're using that as an option check.”
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Said on The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
Contrarian take Share this moment
“He sold his position at a loss, freeing up roughly $500,000 to bet against Moderna by buying put options ahead of the trial results. Perfect timing for Togi. Shortly after, the results were leaked and the stock crashed by 26%.”
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Said on TBPN
Pricing bought puts freeing roughly $500,000; stock crashed 26% intraday, 18% … Share this moment
“…alternating big seed small seed… run the thresher for five or ten minutes between changing seed types to clean out a lot of the extra bits… very little chance of contamination…”
DB
Dan Brisboa
The Seed Farmer Podcast ·
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