“When the model and judgment disagree, I usually stop asking whether that model is right. And I start asking what would have to be true for that model to be wrong.”

Svetlana Cardan · RiskMasters | Trailblazing Risk Leadership · When Models Meet Behaviour: The Psychology of Treasury Risk

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What was described

When the model and judgment disagree, stop asking whether the model is right and instead ask what would have to be true for the model to be wrong; if the answer is unknown, act on personal judgment.

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