“Look at SOFA spreads, the move index, credit spreads and term premia. Those are all warning signs of what could be going wrong or right.”

BTC Sessions · If You Don't Get Global Liquidity, You Don't Get The Everything Bubble | Michael Howell

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What was described

recommends monitoring SOFA spreads, yield curve, move index, credit spreads and term premia as liquidity-cycle indicators

Said nearby on the same subject

“Our global liquidity cycle this is shown as an index um it's basically an index of the underlying momentum of global liquidity so this is the underlying growth rate and you can see that it moves in four in five to six year spans or cycles”
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Said on Bankless
Why it worked Share this moment
“Senior bond spreads move from the low 60s to the circa 70 area; major bank T2 spreads drift from high 115-120 to low 130”
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Said on Complexity Premia
Why it worked senior spreads low 60s → ~70 bps; T2 spreads high 115-120 → low 130 bp… Share this moment
“In oil, we call it a crack spread… In soybeans, we call it a crush spread… At DRW, we call this the crunch spread”
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Said on Odd Lots
Why it worked Share this moment
“You have a billion in the fund, you might buy 1.3 billion worth of those stocks, then overlay some well thought out hedges. It might be something as simple as buying put spreads, you know, 95, 85 put spread”
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Said on Alpha Exchange
How they work ≈200 public stocks; leverage up to 1.3×; example hedge: 95/85 put spre… Share this moment

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