Rob Armstrong · Unhedged · There is only one trade
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bought 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yielding 2.92% as a low-risk position
10-year TIP yield 2.92%
“What would it take for the bond market to have a negative return over the next 10 years? It would take 14%-15% 10-year yields in the next five to seven years.”
“The day before the war started… 10-year yield… was below 4%. Now we’re sitting with a yield of 5.25%”
“Our average holding period is just shy of a decade… we have trimmed these positions as the cycle has been in our favor, and we’ve bought more as the cycle has ebbed and flowed”
“They bought up close to a million homes in the U.S. over 10 years ... stopped buying four years ago as soon as rates went up ... purchases cut 50 60 70 percent”
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