Carolin Pflueger · Odd Lots · Why Treasuries Are 'Risky' Again
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Observed that the market’s perceived policy reaction function remained flat throughout 2021 despite high inflation, indicating expectations of zero rates regardless of conditions
“You can run this regression of how much do yields change onto what's the inflation surprise on that day… gives another way of getting a perceived reaction function.”
“After the Fed started to act, that's when… we see that the perceived inflation response really picks up… goes from zero to one.”
“The rise in yields is 90% real rates and only 10% inflation expectations”
“How are we sequencing that learning throughout the year? A high-quality curriculum resource should be building on that throughout, at least a unit, but ideally throughout a year.”
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