LessWrong (Curated & Popular) · "Towards The Autograntor" by Scott Alexander
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use sub-agents (Opus, Fable, etc.) to produce independent forecasts, have them debate, then let the main Claude model make the final decision
“‘We have really, really robust forecast models that we use to do all of our buying… we’re never going to be sending out flowers that have been sitting in our warehouse for days.’”
“I use voice notes to Claude. Claude takes my scores. The LLM as a judge, ranks them, and then puts them together in a presentation.”
“Give the skill Grant Adversarial Estimate to Claude and ask it to install it in itself Then start a new session with Opus 5.5, Medium Effort and Prompt it with”
“First off, what is the decision? Let's define it. When does it have to be made? What is the cost for making it later as opposed to earlier?... what information do I have to have... who are the other stakeholders”
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